First Debate in Mass. Senate Race

Tonight Massachusetts voters get their first chance to watch Senate candidates Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown go head-to-head in a televised debate.

The debate, which is hosted by WBZ-TV's Jon Keller, is the first in a series of four that will take place throughout the next month across the state. And in a race that has stayed as consistently close as this one, these debates offer both candidates a chance to break through and gain a solid lead in the polls.

"Debates usually don't change minds. Typically, they reinforce attitudes that are already there," says Jeffrey Berry, a professor of political science at Tufts University in Medford, Mass. "But the race is close, and a gaffe by one could be enough to even up the preferences right now which show Warren slightly up."

While recent polls have shown Warren with a slight advantage, in the deeply blue state of Massachusetts the toss-up status of the race is not what Democrats had hoped for at this stage in the game. Democrats have long viewed the Massachusetts seat, currently held by Republican Scott Brown, as one of if not their best chance for a pick-up in the general election. Republicans need a net gain of four seats in the Senate to win the majority, and a Democratic pick-up in Massachusetts makes that path to the majority much harder for the GOP. Tonight's debate could tip the scales in either direction.

Warren and Brown are both strong candidates, but they'll both have to prove themselves in tonight's debate, says Berry.

Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images

For Warren, the challenge will come in her presentation, says Berry.

"I think there's a little bit of risk for Warren. ... There's the risk of her coming across as the smartest person in the room, and coming across unfavorably with the affable Scott Brown. I think what she has to do is convey a greater sense of empathy for middle-class voters" says Berry.

And for Brown, he will need to prove he's more than just the likable guy persona we've seen highlighted throughout the campaign.

"For Scott Brown, I think there's risk, too, in that he has difficulty talking about the specifics of public policy because here in Massachusetts, the voters don't want what Republicans are offering," Berry says. "In this debate, you have to do more than be affable so he has to demonstrate that he has leadership qualities, and that he's a fighter and not just a nice guy."

Both candidates face potential minefields tonight. For Brown, the timing is somewhat inconvenient. Although he has distanced himself from Mitt Romney's comments about the "47 percent" of Americans he said were "dependent" on government, the topic will inevitably come up, and Brown will have to address it again. Brown will likely continue vocalize his disagreement with what Romney said, and it presents Elizabeth Warren with a clear opportunity to tie Brown to Romney and the GOP.

For Warren, her controversy from the spring regarding her identifying herself as Native American is likely to rear its head again, either in a direct question from the moderator or in remarks from Brown.

Although tonight's debate is not the only opportunity for Brown and Warren to make an impression, they are likely going to have the biggest audience for this first debate.

"The first debate is important because it'll have the greatest viewership," says Berry. "The next debate is out in the western part of the state where not as many people live."

The debate starts at 7 p.m. Come Friday morning, the shape of the Senate race could look very different for Republicans, or for Democrats. Or it could stay exactly the same.

20 Sep, 2012

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Romney Embarks On A Re-Reset

At the beginning of this roller-coaster week on the campaign trail, Mitt Romney's team was sending signals that the campaign was about to undergo a re-tooling of sorts.

The plan called for a multi-state advertising blitz, a series of speeches by Romney clearly laying out his economic plans, a message to voters that included more specifics about how, if elected, he would carry out his proposals, among other things. The strategy was essentially: "More Mitt."

Then, the leaked fundraising video happened, followed by the campaign's incremental response, followed by a raft of criticism among members of Romney's own party and conservatives not only unhappy with Romney's candid remarks on the hidden-camera tape but also with the direction of his campaign.

Today marks the beginning of Romney's re-reset. Again, the strategy is "More Mitt." Senior Romney advisers passed along the rough game plan for the coming weeks to ABC's Jonathan Karl:

AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

Mitt Romney Faces Tough Questions in Univision Interview Watch Video

Tim Tebow Considers Future In Politics After Football Watch Video

Housing Market, Hiring Both Up: Economy Turning A Corner? Watch Video

–DON'T PANIC: Romney himself sets the tone for the campaign and, as one adviser told Karl, "He never gets too high; he never gets too low." Romney has seen worse: he faced near-death experiences at least twice during the primary (the South Carolina loss, the losses, on the same day, to Santorum in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado).

–THE MESSAGE: The campaign is promising a "sharper message" in its upcoming advertising blitz. The message will be economy/jobs, of course, and it will be tailored to each state, each media market. In other words, it will hammer Obama on military cuts in Virginia, coal and manufacturing in Ohio, etc.

–THE SCHEDULE: Expect Romney to have "a very intense schedule" in the coming weeks — packed with events in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia and other key states. This may seem like the obvious thing to do, but Romney lately has had a strangely light public schedule recently, with many more closed fundraisers in red states than campaign rallies in battleground states. At one recent Texas fundraiser, Karl notes, a donor told Romney, "I am happy to write a check, but why are you here? Shouldn't you be in Ohio?"

–THE DEBATES: More than anything, they are counting on a strong performance in the debates, especially the first on Oct. 3 in Denver, to pull them ahead of Obama.

The Romney campaign this morning announced a stepped-up pace in the battleground states. Next week, we'll see Romney and running mate Paul Ryan back on the hustings. This time the duo will take part in a three-day "Romney Plan for a Stronger Middle Class" bus tour across Ohio. Ryan is set to campaign in Lima and Cincinnati while Romney will travel to Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo.

20 Sep, 2012

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Ready, Set, Vote! Early Voting Begins

The general election isn't 47 days away--it's happening now.

On November 6 polls will open across the country and millions of voters will head out to cast their vote. But those voters won't be the sole contingent of Americans who decide the outcome of the general election. Rather, they'll be joined by another group, a smaller yet very sizable percentage for whom voting day might be a faint memory: the early voters.

The first polls will open this coming Friday, September 21, in the solidly red state of South Dakota. Next week the polls will open in the first swing state- Iowa- on September 27. By the time the next jobs report comes out October 5, another key swing state- Ohio, will have also opened up their polls to early voters.

Absentee ballots have already been mailed out in several states including North Carolina and Hawaii. In North Carolina, absentee ballots were mailed out on Friday, September 7, the day after Barack Obama accepted his party's nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. Back in 2008, 56 percent of the total vote in North Carolina was cast through early and absentee voting.

Early in-person and absentee voting is a popular form of casting a ballot in the modern age where travel is frequent, schedules are busy, and aversion to standing in line is ever increasing thanks to technology.

Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images

"Since 2000 the rate of increase has been 50 percent in every presidential election" says Paul Gronke, Director of the Early Voting Center at Reed College. "In 2000 it was about 15 percent, in 2004 it was about 22 percent, in 2008 it was about 33 percent."

Some states are much more lenient with their early voting options than other states, which means that the option is more popular in certain places than others. But in several key swing states like Florida, Nevada and Colorado, more than half of the state's total votes could already be cast by election day, if trends from 2008 hold.

In 2008, 58 percent of the vote in Nevada came in via early voting. In Florida the numbers were roughly the same- 57.3 percent, and in Colorado, 63 percent voted by mail-in ballot (this is how the state of Colorado classifies their votes.) In Ohio and Iowa, the numbers were a minority, but still sizable- 30 percent and 36 percent of the vote respectively was cast through early voting, according to number from the secretary of state's offices for the aforementioned states.

While the demographics of early voters differ state to state, Gronke notes that generally, early voters tend to be more partisan.

"The broad brush strokes is that people who vote early tend to have their mind made up, so they tend to be a bit more partisan, a bit more ideological, a bit more informed about politics," Gronke says.

Since different states have different rules about early voting- some only allow absentee voting with an excuse, some open their polls to all registered voters more than a month in advance of election- specific strategies for mobilizing early voters differs from place to place. However, the constant rule to abide by- timing is everything, and getting those voters excited when those ballots are mailed or polls are opened is the key.

"In 2008 in Florida Obama's first big get out the vote rally was the day that early voting opened," Gronke notes.

The campaigns may have 47 days between now and the poll closings, but the election is already under way.

"The election is started," says Gronke. "Here we go."

20 Sep, 2012

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After The Videos, Mitt Romney Embarks On A Re-Reset (The Note)

By MICHAEL FALCONE (@michaelpfalcone) and AMY WALTER (@amyewalter)

NOTABLES:

• ROMNEY: I WILL BE PRESIDENT FOR THE '100 PERCENT.' Mitt Romney said three times in the opening 10 minutes of last night's Univision "Meet the Candidate" forum that his campaign is "about the 100 percent," a clear message to voters who have been swamped with sound bites and video clips that show the candidate suggesting he wasn't concerned about the nearly half of the country unlikely to vote for him, ABC's Emily Friedman and Gregory Krieg report. "My campaign is about the 100 percent of America," Romney said to the University of Miami crowd. "And I'm concerned about them. Life has become harder for Americans. I know I'm not going to get 100 percent of the vote. And my campaign will focus on the ones who will vote for me. … I'm convinced that if we take a different course, you'll see incomes rising. I have a record, I've demonstrated my capacity to help the 100 percent." http://abcn.ws/SEeoXv

• AND HE PLEDGES IMMIGRATION FIX. Univision's Jordan Fabian reports: "Romney, 65, was also pressed on the hot-button issue of immigration by Univision anchors Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas at the BankUnited Center Field House on the University of Miami campus. The candidate emphasized that he would expand legal immigration and said that he wouldn't aggressively pursue undocumented immigrants living in the United States. 'I am not going to be going around the country and rounding them up,' he said." http://abcn.ws/QEw5XW

• TUNE IN: Watch the highlights from last night's Univision forum with Mitt Romney: http://abcn.ws/Psj2JI And don't forget to tune in today when President Obama takes the stage for "El Gran Encuentro con el Presidente Barack Obama."

• FROM ROMNEY H.Q.:  Sen. Marco Rubio spoke up for Mitt Romney onstage at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, and he's doing it again on TV airwaves, ABC's Chris Good reports. The Romney campaign is now airing an ad in Florida that stars Rubio, who speaks straight to camera about Medicare, a hotly debated issue of particular concern to seniors, of which Florida has many. In it, Rubio touts the Romney-Ryan Medicare-overhaul plan, mentioning his mother. Rubio tells viewers: "Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan get it. Medicare is going broke; that's not politics, it's math."  And today the Romney campaign released a new Spanish radio advertisement, titled 'Promesas' that highlights what the campaign calls "President Obama's broken promises to the Hispanic community. The ad goes on to identify Governor Romney's vision for creating jobs and getting our economy going." http://mi.tt/S63md0

• COUNTDOWN TO ELECTION DAY: There are 47 days to go until Nov. 6, 2012. ABC News' battleground state rankings: http://abcn.ws/OovnMp

THE NOTE:

At the beginning of this roller-coaster week on the campaign trail, Mitt Romney's team was sending signals that the campaign was about to undergo a re-tooling of sorts.

The plan called for a multi-state advertising blitz, a series of speeches by Romney clearly laying out his economic plans, a message to voters that included more specifics about how, if elected, he would carry out his proposals, among other things. The strategy was essentially: "More Mitt."

Then, the leaked fundraising video happened, followed by the campaign's incremental response, followed by a raft of criticism among members of Romney's own party and conservatives not only unhappy with Romney's candid remarks on the hidden-camera tape but also with the direction of his campaign.

Today marks the beginning of Romney's re-reset. Again, the strategy is "More Mitt." Senior Romney advisers passed along the rough game plan for the coming weeks to ABC's Jonathan Karl: http://abcn.ws/S83GNW

–DON'T PANIC: Romney himself sets the tone for the campaign and, as one adviser told Karl, "He never gets too high; he never gets too low." Romney has seen worse: he faced near-death experiences at least twice during the primary (the South Carolina loss, the losses, on the same day, to Santorum in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado).

–THE MESSAGE: The campaign is promising a "sharper message" in its upcoming advertising blitz. The message will be economy/jobs, of course, and it will be tailored to each state, each media market. In other words, it will hammer Obama on military cuts in Virginia, coal and manufacturing in Ohio, etc.

–THE SCHEDULE: Expect Romney to have "a very intense schedule" in the coming weeks — packed with events in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia and other key states. This may seem like the obvious thing to do, but Romney lately has had a strangely light public schedule recently, with many more closed fundraisers in red states than campaign rallies in battleground states. At one recent Texas fundraiser, Karl notes, a donor told Romney, "I am happy to write a check, but why are you here? Shouldn't you be in Ohio?"

–THE DEBATES: More than anything, they are counting on a strong performance in the debates, especially the first on Oct. 3 in Denver, to pull them ahead of Obama.

The Romney campaign this morning announced a stepped-up pace in the battleground states. Next week, we'll see Romney and running mate Paul Ryan back on the hustings. This time the duo will take part in a three-day "Romney Plan for a Stronger Middle Class" bus tour across Ohio. Ryan is set to campaign in Lima and Cincinnati while Romney will travel to Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo.

POLLING NOTE: ABC News Pollster Gary Langer notes that in the most recent ABC News-Washington Post poll, registered voters by two-to-one margin said Romney had not provided enough details on the policies he'd pursue as president — 31 percent (enough) to 63 percent (not enough). That division was much closer on whether Obama has done enough to detail what he'd do in a second term, 46 percent (enough) to compared to 49 percent (not enough).

DAVID MUIR'S REPORT ON LAST NIGHT'S UNIVISION FORUM ON "GOOD MORNING AMERICA." WATCH: http://abcn.ws/Psohcr

JONATHAN KARL'S ANALYSIS OF THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN'S NEW STRATEGY. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/OecJfX

 

TODAY'S MESSAGE FROM OBAMA H.Q.: From an Obama campaign official: "During a week that was supposed to be a messaging reset for the Romney campaign, Mitt Romney showed once again that he just doesn't get it on issues important to veterans and military families. Tomorrow, OFA will hold a conference call with reporters to run through Romney's terrible week on veterans' issues."

 

NOTE IT!

ABC's RICK KLEIN: Why have Paul Ryan on your ticket if you're not prepared to make this a Paul Ryan moment? Among the many discordant things about Mitt Romney's "47 percent" comment is that it's impossible to imagine it coming out of Ryan's mouth — it's just not what animates his conservatism. So why not turn to Ryan to put that behind him? Romney is starting to build back his economic message, saying last night that the campaign is "about the 100 percent." That's a sentiment Ryan would agree with. So maybe the answer isn't more Mitt, so much as it's more Paul.

NOTE EXCLUSIVE: SEIU ADS HIT ROMNEY, GOP CANDIDATES ON MEDICARE. ABC's Chris Good reports, the Service Employees International Union is airing a new radio ad in Florida, hitting Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on Medicare reform. In it, a nervous-sounding mother calls her son asking about Medicare and the GOP ticket, confused by TV ads on the topic. "Well the Romney Ryan plan does essentially end Medicare, that's what the Wall Street Journal said," her son explains. "What I read said seniors would wind up paying over $6,000 dollars more per year." (That figure pertains to Ryan's 2011 Medicare proposal, which he has since revised.) "I don't like the sound of that," the mother says. SEIU will also air two new TV ads attacking freshman House Republicans. One questions Rep. Dan Benishek's ethics as a doctor for his vote in favor of the Ryan budget; the other attacks Rep. Scott Rigell. Noted: the ads recycle a claim that Romney/Ryan would hike seniors' health-care costs by $6,400—a figure that applied to Ryan's 2011 plan, not the revised 2012 version. See and hear the ads here: http://abcn.ws/T7GAZg

 

YOUR VOICE, YOUR VOTE: THE NEW AMERICA. ABC News announced the launch of an on-going series of reports, "Your Voice, Your Vote: The New America," to examine how the Hispanic vote will impact the whole political picture in November and beyond. The influence of the booming U.S. Hispanic population is challenging the conventional political wisdom in new and unexpected ways that have both Democrats and Republicans taking notice.  The first reports began airing last night in conjunction with Univision's "Meet the Candidate" forums. ABC's Diane Sawyer spoke with Univision's Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas, moderators of the two forums. "World News" weekend anchor David Muir reported last night and this morning from Florida and  watch for ABC News senior White House correspondent Jake Tapper's report tonight. BACKGROUND: In May ABC News and Univision News announced a joint venture that will launch a 24/7 news, information and lifestyle network primarily in English to serve the youngest and fastest-growing demographic in the country: U.S. Hispanics.

MEET THE PERSUADABLES: ABC News pollster Gary Langer reports that slightly more than a fifth of registered voters remain persuadable in their preferences for president, little changed from before the party conventions — and a continued sign that the 2012 election retains the potential to break open in either candidate's direction. Twenty-two percent of registered voters fit the definition of persuadable — those who express anxiety about the candidate they support and are seeking more information about their choices. That includes essentially equal numbers of Barack Obama's and Mitt Romney's supporters. The number of "persuadables" in last week's ABC News/Washington Post poll is similar to its level before the nominating conventions, 25 percent. http://abcn.ws/Oe1WT8

 

THE BUZZ:

with ABC's Elizabeth Hartfield (@LizHartfield)

PAWLENTY LEAVING ROMNEY ROLE FOR K STREET. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will step down from his position as co-chair of Romney's campaign after being named the CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable. "I'm excited about this new challenge," Pawlenty said in the official press release. "Few industries have more impact on the entire economy – and on the lives of average Americans – than financial services. I realize there is still work to be done to continue to earn customers' confidence. Our members will best accomplish that goal by responsibly investing every day in our communities and job creators. I look forward to working closely with decision makers from both parties on issues related to our nation's banks, insurance companies and investment firms so that they can continue to provide fuel for America's economic  engine." Pawlenty's new job will begin November 1st, 2012 and he will take over from long-time CEO Steve Bartlett, who is retiring.

READY, SET, VOTE! EARLY VOTING BEGINS. The general election isn't 47 days away–it's happening now, reports ABC's Elizabeth Hartfield. On November 6 polls will open across the country and millions of voters will head out to cast their vote. But those voters won't be the sole contingent of Americans who decide the outcome of the general election. Rather, they'll be joined by another group, a smaller yet very sizable percentage for whom voting day might be a faint memory: the early voters. http://abcn.ws/P2geSy

BARACK AND MICHELLE OBAMA TO APPEAR ON THE VIEW. ABC's Devin Dwyer reports, President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama will appear  on ABC's "The View" Tuesday for their first  joint interview on the daytime TV talk circuit, the show's producers announced today. The first couple will together take questions on their relationship, family life inside the White House and the 2012 presidential race from the program's five female hosts, the network said in a statement. The interview is scheduled to tape Monday, Sept. 24, in New York City. The Obamas have each appeared individually on "The View." http://abcn.ws/PWODFl

ROMNEY USES HIS MEXICAN BORN DAD'S WELFARE STORY AT JUNTOS CON ROMNEY RALLY. ABC's Emily Friedman reports, Mitt Romney called the Republican Party the "natural home" for Hispanic voters, saying, in his first campaign rally in nearly five days, that America is a place that helps those struggling get back on their feet but won't make government dependency a "permanent lifestyle." Speaking through various interruptions, one protestor, getting no further than screaming  "The 47 percent!," a reference to those leaked videos, Romney tried to paint a picture of a presidency that would do the best job of  pulling Hispanics out of poverty. To do that, Romney used the story of his own Mexican-born father as an example of someone who received government assistance but then made it on his own. http://abcn.ws/S8tQA8

MATT DOWD'S ANALYSIS: IN PRESIDENTIAL DECATHLON, OBAMA IS WINNING. ABC political analyst Matt Dowd notes, Presidential campaigns aren't decided on the last day of a race.  They are decided in all the days and moments leading up to Election Day. They turn toward the candidate who puts together a lead going into the final voting in November, and who won or lost the important moments along the way. In that way, this race in its final months is like a decathlon.  Instead of individual sporting events, it is the combination of 10 moments that determines which candidate has the most points on Nov. 6. Thus far, I would suggest there are have been five moments of significance. President Obama has either won or tied in each of these, allowing him to build up a small but significant lead. http://abcn.ws/PIn7Yy

RUBIO CALLS ROMNEY'S I-WISH-I-WERE-LATINO COMMENT 'A JOKE.' ABC's Michael Falcone reports: In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio called Mitt Romney's I-wish-I-were-Latino comment, which came to light in a leaked video tape this week, a "joke." "I think he meant it as a joke," Rubio said on a conference call organized by the Republican National Committee, adding that's "how most reasonable people would take it." Romney was shown on a hidden-camera video clip posted by Mother Jones magazine telling his audience at a May 17 fundraiser in Florida about his father's background. http://abcn.ws/PUG3Xu

SCOTT BROWN AND ELIZABETH WARREN SQUARE OFF IN FIRST DEBATE TONIGHT. ABC's Elizabeth Hartfield reports, Tonight Massachusetts voters get their first chance to watch Senate candidates Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown go head-to-head in a televised debate. The debate, which is hosted by WBZ-TV's Jon Keller, is the first in a series of four that will take throughout the next month across the state. And in a race that has stayed as consistently close as this one, these debates offer both candidates a chance to break through and gain a solid lead in the polls. http://abcn.ws/Usewh2

BUDGET DEAL IS GOAL OF SENATORS GUIDED BY BOWLES-SIMPSON. Bloomberg's Heidi Pryzbyla reports: "A group of U.S. senators is quietly attempting to do something almost unthinkable in Washington: craft a bipartisan solution to the nation's growing deficit in an election year. The group — which includes Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican, and Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat — hasn't been given a name like the "Gang of Six," and members might fail like others before them. That hasn't stopped them from joining forces when most lawmakers are focused on campaigning. They are looking at reviving a proposal by the leaders of President Barack Obama failed 2010 deficit-cutting commission to require Congress to act on a long-term plan, said Democratic Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota. The lawmakers want to offer a proposal during the lame-duck session of Congress after the Nov. 6 election." bloom.bg/QDe24i

ELECTORAL FOCUS: ALL THE SINGLE LADIES. The Daily's Daniel Libit reports: "As both campaigns scour for new voters — especially in increasingly crucial Florida — a growing group of experts and a recent Gallup survey suggest that the obsession over single-female voters should shift to the widows and divorcees of the over-65 bracket. President Obama has been, in political terms, a single-lady killer: the latest Fox News poll of likely voters has Obama leading Romney by 38 points. According to exit polls, he won the group by 44 points in 2008. But an exit poll study by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner found that Obama's 2008 support among single seniors women shrunk to 19 points — the narrowest margin of any other subgroup as it relates to marriage status. By the time women reach their Medicare-recipient age, experts said, their living arrangement is almost incidental to their voting profile. Indeed, the Obama campaign confirmed recently that it is not making any specific targeting efforts related to single seniors – even though it has made great strides to connect to the younger constituency.  http://bit.ly/SCLlUi

STRUGGLING YOUNG ADULTS POSE CHALLENGE FOR CAMPAIGNS. The New York Times' Susan Saulny reports: "Millions of struggling working-class young adults, many in battleground states like Florida, Colorado and Wisconsin, are up for grabs in this election, making up what experts call one of the most potentially powerful but often overlooked voting blocs. Voter turnout efforts tend to focus on university campuses and young professionals who have time and money to spend on campaigns. But in several tossup states this year, legions of eligible voters are young, jobless or underemployed, and lacking in formal education beyond high school. Undecided between the presidential candidates, and often discouraged, they are offering openings for both parties to make gains, experts say. http://nyti.ms/RxH4qC

TO CLAIM VIRGINIA, OBAMA'S HOPES REST ON WOMEN. The Washington Post's Karen Tumulty and Scott Clement report: "A new Washington Post survey indicates that President Obama holds a 19-percentage-point lead (58 to 39 percent) among female likely voters in the commonwealth yet is running six points behind Republican nominee Mitt Romney among men who are likely to vote (50 to 44 percent). That support from women is the reason the president now holds an eight-point advantage overall in Virginia. There has long been a disparity between women and men in their voting patterns — a phenomenon first identified and named the "gender gap" during Ronald Reagan's presidency. This year, however, ginning up female support has become an imperative for Obama in his reelection bid." http://wapo.st/T66gpf

 

WHO'S TWEETING?

@sarahpompei: My 2000th tweet. #whataboutthegiraffes cc: @RyanGOP@AMHenneberg @michaelpfalcone @Timodc @PhilipRuckerhttp://yfrog.us/61m0gcrkguszwnpqmocdfibqz …

@JohnJHarwood: Fox News swing-state polls: Obama +7 over Romney in OH (49%-42%), +7 in VA (50%-43%), +5 in FL (49%-44%). Likely voters.

@JakeSherman: House R ldrshp has been quietly considering the universe of scenarios for taxes/fiscal cliff. http://politi.co/UsDLA2  All depends on election

@jeffzeleny: Obama Wields All Levers of Power Within Reach. A must-read from @peterbakernyt http://nyti.ms/Odnmj7 

@HotlineReid: On The Trail: 3 questions (coattails, economy, super PACs) left to answer that will determine election outcomes –http://nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/answer-me-these-questions-three-20120920 …

 

POLITICAL RADAR

with ABC's Josh Haskell (@HaskellBuzz)

–President Barack Obama heads to the University of Miami for Univision's broadcast of "El Gran Encuentro con el Presidente Barack Obama." Tonight the president attends a private fundraiser in Tampa.

–Mitt Romney holds a rally at the Ringling Museum of Art in Sarasota, Fla. Later he holds campaign fundraisers in North Palm Beach.

–Vice President Biden has no public events.

–Paul Ryan is in Washington, DC to attend to Congressional business.

Check out The Note's Futures Calendar: http://abcn.ws/ZI9gV

20 Sep, 2012

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The Obamas to Appear on 'The View'

Sep 20, 2012 7:19am

Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP Photo

President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama will appear  on ABC's "The View" Tuesday for their first  joint interview on the daytime TV talk circuit, the show's producers announced today.

The first couple will together take questions on their relationship, family life inside the White House and the 2012 presidential race from the program's five female hosts, the network said in a statement. The interview is scheduled to tape Monday, Sept. 24, in New York City.

The Obamas have each appeared individually on "The View." Michelle Obama most recently visited the show in mid-August.  President Obama sat for a solo interview in July 2010, becoming the first sitting U.S. president to visit a daytime TV talk show.

"We are honored to host President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama," said co-host Barbara Walters in a statement. "This first joint appearance marks a significant milestone."

The taping is billed as part of show's "Red, White & View" series, which has included  prominent American politicians and discussions on current political issues.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who has not yet appeared on "The View," said Wednesday that he is willing to participate in an interview in October. He had previously disparaged the program as a "high risk" media opportunity because of the "sharp tongued" female hosts.

No date has been publicly announced for a Romney visit to the program.

Hosts Barbara Walters, Whoopi Goldberg, Joy Behar, Elisabeth Hasselbeck and Sherri Shepherd — who represent a wide range of backgrounds and political views — are known for putting their guests on the hot seat.

The ladies' questions have not deterred the Obamas from coming back, however.  Next week's appearance is Barack Obama's fifth visit to "The View," including previous appearances as a U.S. senator and presidential candidate. The first lady  has been on the show four times, including a June 2008 stint as a special guest co-host.

Get more pure politics at ABC News.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com

SHOWS: Good Morning America

20 Sep, 2012

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New Union Ads Hit Romney on Medicare

Sep 20, 2012 6:00am

The Service Employees International Union is going after Mitt Romney and two freshman House Republicans on Medicare, with a flight of ads airing in three states.

The union plans to make health care a central theme in its ads this fall. "You're going to see a lot of stuff on Medicare, Medicaid  and the Affordable Care Act in multiple races," said SEIU spokesman Mark McCullough.

In Florida, a new statewide radio ad blasts Romney and VP nominee Paul Ryan for their Medicare plan. In it, a nervous-sounding mother calls her son asking about Medicare and the GOP ticket, confused by TV ads on the topic.

"Well, the Romney-Ryan plan does essentially end Medicare, that's what the Wall Street Journal said," her son explains. "What I read said seniors would wind up paying over $6,000  more per year." (That figure applies to Ryan's 2011 Medicare proposal, which he has since revised.)

"I don't like the sound of that," the mother says. When her son in the ad  notes that Ryan's plan would cut Medicaid spending, and that Medicaid provides nursing-home benefits, she replies, "Boy, that's scary."

SEIU will spend $322,000 airing the ad, its second radio spot focusing on health care in Florida.

A TV ad in Michigan's 1st Congressional District attacks freshman GOP Rep. Dan Benishek, who is facing a challenge from Democrat Gary McDowell, suggesting his vote for Ryan's budget violated his professional ethics as a doctor. SEIU will spend $152,000 airing it.

 

Another ad in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District hits freshman Rep. Scott Rigell, who faces a challenge from Democrat Paul Hirschbiel. The ad accuses Rigell of wanting to raise the retirement age and, again, hiking out-of-pocket health-care costs for older Americans. SEIU will spend $126,000 airing it.

 

SEIU's Medicare attacks focus on Ryan's 2011 Medicare plan, which is different from what Mitt Romney has endorsed. Democrats have largely trained their fire on Ryan's more controversial version.

Using Congressional Budget Office analysis of Ryan's 2011 Medicare plan, SEIU claims  the GOP ticket would hike out-of-pocket costs for older Americans  by $6,400. Romney has loosely backed Ryan's 2012 plan, which included some significant changes, including a fee-for-service Medicare plan that would "compete" with private insurers on a new Medicare exchange. The Wall Street Journal (mentioned in the radio ad) has called the $6,400 claim faulty, as has The Washington Post's Ezra Klein. The radio ad also fails to mention that Ryan's reforms would not change Medicare for current seniors, such as, presumably, the woman in the ad, or that the CBO projected added out-of-pocket costs would apply only to future seniors.

The most recent ABC/Washington Post poll showed President Obama with a narrow advantage — 47 percent to 44 percent — on whether he or Romney would "do a better job handling health-care policy." On Medicare, Obama's advantage was 48 percent to 43 percent. SEIU hopes to capitalize on that advantage in its ads.

"At a time when America's workers are moving forward and trying to build their retirement saving lost during a recession caused by Wall Street's excesses, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Congressional Republicans support legislation that would leave Americans facing increased costs, decreased coverage  or loss of coverage altogether," SEIU political director Brandon Davis said.

20 Sep, 2012

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Persuadable Voters

Slightly more than a fifth of registered voters remain persuadable in their preferences for president, little changed from before the party conventions – and a continued sign that the 2012 election retains the potential to break open in either candidate's direction.

Twenty-two percent of registered voters fit the definition of persuadable – those who express anxiety about the candidate they support and are seeking more information about their choices. That includes essentially equal numbers of Barack Obama's and Mitt Romney's supporters.

See PDF with additional table here.

The number of persuadables in last week's ABC News/Washington Post poll is similar to its level before the nominating conventions, 25 percent. There are some shifts beneath the surface -less persuadability among Romney supporters and among conservatives, but likewise slightly less among Democrats; and a bit less room to move in the Midwest and the South.

Persuadables are middle-of-the-road types, making it difficult for the candidates to reach them with traditional red-meat appeals to core supporters. For instance, among registered voters who don't feel strongly about Obama's work in office (i.e., saying they "somewhat" approve or disapprove), 37 percent are persuadable. That dives to 15 percent among those who feel strongly about Obama, either pro or con.

Similarly, this analysis, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that 26 percent of political moderates or "somewhat" conservatives are persuadable, compared with 16 percent of liberals and "very" conservatives. And while 19 percent of those who currently are "enthusiastic" about their preferred candidate are persuadable, that rises to 36 percent of those who support a candidate, but not enthusiastically.

Among other groups, persuadability is now lowest, by partisanship, among Democrats (16 percent) and highest among independents (26 percent). There was no movement in persuadability pre-and post-convention among independents, customarily a swing voter group.

Get more pure politics at ABCNews.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com

Persuadability is higher among adults younger than age 50 (27 percent persuadable) than among those 50 and up (17 percent), and higher among less-educated registered voters – 25 percent among those who don't have a college degree, vs. 17 percent of graduates.

In a regression analysis, holding demographic measures constant, being persuadable is most strongly predicted by being in the middle range ideologically, less educated, younger, lower income, and a Republican or independent rather than a Democrat. When attitudinal variables are added, being persuadable also is predicted by being unenthusiastic, less certain to vote, and in the middle ground in rating Obama's job performance.

ANXIETY AND INTEREST – Overall, 60 percent of registered voters who  Votersupport Obama or Romney say they're anxious about how their preferred candidate would perform as president, and 32 percent are interested in finding out more information about the candidates. The combination of both groups (plus current undecideds) produces the estimate that 22 percent are persuadable, using the model described here.

One of those two measures – interest in getting more information – has declined, from 41 percent before the conventions to 32 percent after them. If that trend continues, it would close the window through which candidates can make their appeals to persuadable voters.

This definition of persuadables is different from the traditional method of simply asking voters if there's a chance they could change their minds. That produces a lower estimate – 13 percent, including just 4 percent who say there's a good chance they might shift allegiance, with the rest calling it "pretty unlikely."

Notably, even among registered voters who say their minds are made up, 17 percent appear to be persuadable under the anxiety/information-seeking model. And among those who say they could change their minds, only about half, 49 percent, fit the definition of persuadable voters based on their anxiety and interest in more information about the candidates. (The latter number combines August and September data for an adequate sample size.)

Compared with self-defined movable voters, the larger population of persuadables includes a greater proportion of women and of older registered voters, as well as more who say they're certain to vote in November.

20 Sep, 2012

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The Note's Must-Reads for Thursday, September 20, 2012

Sep 20, 2012 3:30am

The Note's Must-Reads are a round-up of today's political headlines and stories from ABC News and the top U.S. newspapers. Posted Monday through Friday right here at www.abcnews.com

Compiled by ABC News' Jayce Henderson, Amanda VanAllen, and Carrie Halperin

PRESIDENT OBAMA:
The New York Times' Peter Baker and Eric Lipton:"In Tight Race, Obama Wields All Levers of Power in Reach" For months, government lawyers and economists worked behind the scenes to develop a trade case against China. Then last month came a eureka moment: They confirmed the existence of a Chinese subsidy program for automobiles and parts that in their view violated international trade rules. LINK

Bloomberg's Jonathan D. Salant: "Poll Finds Obama in Better Shape Than Any Nominee Since Clinton" President Barack Obama is in a better position to win November's election than any presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, according to a nationwide poll released today that shows him with an eight-percentage- point lead among likely voters. LINK

MITT ROMNEY:
ABC News' Gregory J. Kreig and Emily Friedman: "Romney Vows to Be President for 'the 100 Percent'" Mitt Romney said three times in the opening 10 minutes of tonight's Univision "Meet the Candidate" forum that his campaign is "about the 100 percent," a clear message to voters who have been swamped with sound bites and video clips that show the candidate suggesting he wasn't concerned about the nearly half of the country unlikely to vote for him. "My campaign is about the 100 percent of America," Romney said to the University of Miami crowd.  LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Mary Lu Carnevale: "Romney on Helping the Poor: 'I Can. He Can't.'" Mitt Romney again tried to correct a perception, sparked by a secretly recorded video, that he has little concern for those who aren't well off. "The question of this campaign is not who cares about the poor and the middle class. I do. He does. The question is: Who can help the poor and the middle class? I can! He can't!" he told donors at an Atlanta fundraiser, referring to President Barack Obama. LINK

The Boston Globe's Matt Viser: "Romney's words hinder his campaign" There is deep unease among Republicans, and no shortage of advice for Mitt Romney on how to right his campaign ship in the seven weeks remaining before the election. Some have called for a campaign staff shake-up. Others want Romney to be more visible on the campaign trail. They want more backbone, bigger ideas, and sharper ads. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Seema Mehta: "Romney tells Latino audience he would fix immigration system" Mitt Romney sought to assuage Latino voters Wednesday, downplaying positions he took on immigration during the GOP primaries, vowing to seek a bipartisan solution and castigating President Obama for failing to keep promises he made to the fast-growing population segment. Obama "said in the first year, among his highest priorities would be to fix the immigration system. But he never even filed a bill," Romney said. "So it's time to put politics aside, and I will actually fix the immigration system and make it work for the people of America." LINK

The Washington Times' Seth McLaughlin: "Romney escalates attack on Obama's economic vision" Far from backing away, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and his campaign are embracing his claim that nearly half of Americans are dependent on government as they seek to frame the race as a choice between the GOP's wealth-creation policies and what they called President Obama's wealth-redistribution message. LINK

Politico's Mike Allen and Jim Vandehei: "Romney rescue plan: More Mitt" After taking a beating for comments he privately wishes he never made and from conservative critics he wishes he could muzzle, Mitt Romney and his campaign are settling on a rescue plan to show more of him — in ads, speeches and campaign appearances. LINK

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES:
USA Today's Catalina Camia: "Economy to rule in first Obama vs. Romney debate" In case there was any doubt, it's still all about the economy.  President Obama and Mitt Romney will spend at least half of their first debate talking about the economy, based on the list of topics released today by moderator Jim Lehrer of PBS. LINK

GOP:
The Hill's Molly Hooper: "Senate GOP leaders dodge questions on Romney's '47 percent' remarks" Senate Republican leaders on Wednesday didn't answer questions in front of TV cameras about Mitt Romney's controversial "47 percent" remarks. After their weekly caucus lunch, the GOP lawmakers faced the Capitol Hill media for the first time since the GOP presidential nominee's comments were leaked earlier this week. LINK

ABC NEWS VIDEOS:
"Highlights From Romney's Forum at University of Miami with Univision" LINK

BOOKMARKS:
The Note: LINK
The Must-Reads Online: LINK
Top Line Webcast (12noon EST M-F): LINK
ABC News Politics: LINKPreview
The Political Punch (Jake Tapper): LINK
George's Bottom Line (George Stephanopoulos): LINK
Follow ABC News on Twitter: LINK
ABC News Mobile: LINK
ABC News app on your iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad: LINK

20 Sep, 2012

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Romney Uses Dad's Welfare Story at Rally

Sep 19, 2012 10:08pm

MIAMI – Mitt Romney called the Republican Party the "natural home" for Hispanic voters, saying, in his first campaign rally in nearly five days, that America is a place that helps those struggling get back on their feet but won't make government dependency a "permanent lifestyle."

"This party is the natural home for Hispanic Americans," Romney said to cheers at a "Juntos con Romney" rally.  It was Romney's first campaign event since leaked videos emerged of him speaking at a private fundraiser in May where he appeared to criticize 47 percent of Americans for considering themselves "victims" who feel "entitled" to government assistance.

Speaking through various interruptions, one protestor, getting no further than screaming  "The 47 percent!," a reference to those leaked videos, Romney tried to paint a picture of a presidency that would do the best job of  pulling Hispanics out of poverty.

To do that, Romney used the story of his own Mexican-born father as an example of someone who received government assistance but then made it on his own.

"I mentioned my dad, my dad was born in Mexico of Americans parents living there. At age 5 or 6 there was revolution," Romney said. "They came back to the United States, and my dad had to get help, financial help, the government helped his family be able to get on their feet again. By the way, that's the way America works, we have great hearts, we care for people who have needs. We help get them back. We help lift them up but then they go back to their permanent lifestyle."

"We get them on their feet, and they build a brighter future," he said.

To further what he said was a "stark" choice between himself and the president, Romney continued to draw on old comments made by then-Sen. Barack Obama in which he spoke in favor of  "redistribution."

"We have a president who's been putting in place a political and economic program that a lot of us don't recognize," said Romney. "We haven't seen anything like this in America before. He said, he said some years ago something which we're hearing about today on the Internet. He said he believes in redistribution, all right? There are people who believe that you can create a stronger economy and a brighter future if you take from some people and give to other people."

"Now listen," he continued, "other places that have tried that haven't done so well. That is not a philosophy that's ever been tried here. We're not going to have it here. We're going to get America back to having free people pursuing their dreams in a free country."

Just days after acknowledging his own comments at the fundraiser could have been stated more "elegantly," Romney gave a nod to Obama's eloquent speaking voice, but said it won't help him win another term.

"He's eloquent, he can describe his vision for the future," said Romney. "But we have his record and his record speaks louder than his voice will ever speak."

This was Romney's first campaign event since last Friday, when he held a rally in the battleground state of Ohio. He had scheduled an event in Colorado for over the weekend but it was canceled after an experimental airplane crashed at the airport where the event was slated to be held. While Romney appeared at the Univision forum earlier today and gave a speech to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce earlier this week, this was the first event organized by his campaign.

20 Sep, 2012

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Romney Promises Not to 'Round Up' Undocumented Immigrants

Mitt Romney sought to repair the damage from his "47 percent" remarks, saying here today he is concerned about the well-being of all voters at a "Meet the Candidate" event sponsored by Univision.

Romney found himself in a defensive crouch this week after a leaked video showed his making disparaging comments about voters of lesser means. He also faced the challenge of appealing to a Latino viewing audience that he has so far struggled to attract during the campaign.

"My campaign is about the 100 percent of America," Romney said in a refrain he would repeat four times during the 45-minute event.

"I know I'm not going to get 100 percent of the vote, and my campaign will focus on those people we think we can bring in to support it," he said. "But this campaign is about helping people who need help."

Romney, 65, was also pressed on the hot-button issue of immigration by Univision anchors Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas at the BankUnited Center Field House on the University of Miami campus.

The candidate emphasized that he would expand legal immigration and said that he wouldn't aggressively pursue undocumented immigrants living in the United States.

"I am not going to be going around the country and rounding them up," he said.

Charles Dharapak/AP Photo

Mitt Romney Video: Republican vs. Democrat Reaction Watch Video

Mitt Romney Video: Campaign Does Damage Control Watch Video

He also criticized President Obama for not taking up an immigration overhaul bill during his first year in the White House, a promise he made to Ramos during the 2008 campaign.

"When I'm president, I will actually do what I promise, I will put in place an immigration reform system that resolves this issue," he said.

But Romney refused to provide more details about how he would handle 1 million-plus young undocumented immigrants who are eligible for a temporary reprieve from deportation under "deferred action," the Obama administration program that is popular among Latino voters.

"For those who are already here and that are undocumented and were brought here by their parents and are therefore illegal aliens in this country, my view is that we should put in place a permanent solution," he said.

When pressed, Romney again insisted that he would not "round up" undocumented people. He said that he would provide a pathway to permanent resident status for undocumented immigrants who pursue military service, but did not say what would happen to those seeking a college degree.

He also stuck by his guns on some of the tougher positions he adopted during the GOP primary, such as "self-deportation" and his support for the Arizona immigration law.

Romney has struggled mightily to attract Latino voters during this campaign. He trails Obama 66-29 percent among Latino registered voters nationwide, according to a Latino Decisions tracking poll released last week.

But Romney appeared before a partisan Republican crowd here at the BankUnited Center. When Ramos grilled him on "self-deportation," the crowd let out an audible groan.

"I have some friends, apparently," Romney said.

20 Sep, 2012

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